000
FXUS61 KPHI 031739
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
139 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE EARL, LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS, WILL MOVE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT
OUR REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM MIDDLESEX COUNTY
WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL OTHER TROPICAL HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
HURRICANE EARL, THE CENTER LOCATED AROUND 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE MAY, NJ, IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND TURNING MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST. EARL WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY BRINGING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL COUNTIES. THE LATEST TROPICAL INFORMATION IS CONTAINED IN
THE HLS PRODUCT WHICH WILL BE UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS TODAY.
CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND WE HAVE INCREASED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN ZONES FOR TODAY. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A
NOTCH FOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. QPF PROBABLY AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ALONG THE SHORE
AREAS. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE SHORE STEPPING DOWN
AS YOU GO INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARL WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND CLOUDS AND
RAINS SHOULD END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON (SOUTH) AND THIS
EVENING (NORTH). A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND BRING COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH (THE ONE THAT STEERED
EARL OUT TO SEA) WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN AND KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SAT AND
SUN WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE AND GUSTY SAT BEHIND EARL WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST, WITH A RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR EAST AND THE RIDGE
BUILDING TOWARD OUR REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
MAY ARRIVE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE CARRIED LITTLE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER COOL, WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO WARM EFFICIENTLY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE NEAR 90 DEGREES
BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AT LOCATIONS NEAR THE
COAST. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY ON THURSDAY SHOULD CAUSE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A VFR FORECAST TAF PACKAGE WAS MAINTAINED FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA
AIRPORTS NORTHWESTWARD WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT
TIMES FOR KACY AND KMIV. ALL THE TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY
WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY THAT SHOULD PEAK CLOSE TO OR AROUND 30 KNOTS.
FOR KABE AND KRDG THE VFR ALTOCUMULUS CANOPY WILL BE EXITING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NARROW LIGHT SHRA BAND IS EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT FOG
FROM FORMING. THE CONVECTIVE TEMP WILL BE REACHED AND SOME VFR
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE KPHL METRO AREA TERMINALS THE VFR ALTOCUMULUS CANOPY WILL
BE EXITING BY THIS EVENING. THE NARROW LIGHT SHRA BAND IS
WEAKENING AND WE ONLY CARRIED NON RESTRICTIVE SHRAS AT KILG. WINDS
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS DEPICTING THIS AS THE REGION
REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF EARL`S CIRCULATION. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT (WE DROPPED THE GUSTS) TO PREVENT FOG FROM
FORMING. THE CONVECTIVE TEMP WILL BE REACHED AND SOME VFR CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL FORM LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR KACY AND KMIV BANDS OF SHRAS CIRCULATING AROUND EARL SHOULD
AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR RANGE IN ANY
HEAVIER SHRAS. IN ADDITION KACY REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE IFR CIGS FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END ONCE THE BAND IN DELMARVA DISSIPATES. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND GUSTINESS IS FORECAST TO CEASE. WE
MIGHT BE A BIT TOO QUICK WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATTER. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP WILL BE REACHED AND A FEW VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
FORM LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
GOOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS THERE MIGHT BE SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG OR HAZE.
&&
.MARINE...
HURRICANE EARL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN FOR
ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY /IT MAY START A LITTLE
EARLY/. SEAS ARE COMMENSURATE WITH THE WINDS AND WITH WHAT WE ARE
OBSERVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY IN THE WAKE OF
EARL. THE GRADIENT NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND EARL AND AN APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT KEEP SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN SIDE. AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER,
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MARINERS AND PEOPLE WHO HAVE PLANS TO GO OUT TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CAREFULLY. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF EARL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A ONE TIDE CYCLE EVENT WITH EARL. THE HIGH TIDE
IN QUESTION OCCURS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO LOWER DELAWARE BAY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUR LOCAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAINLY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WE ARE CALLING FOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE NORTHERN MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY, WHERE THE HIGH TIDE OCCURS MAINLY
THIS EVENING /LATER OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR EASTERN SHORE
COUNTIES/. OF COURSE, ANY SHIFT TO THE WEST WOULD INCREASE THE
TIDAL/COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURF
FORECAST HAS BEEN SUSPENDED UNTIL ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE DROPPED, AND RIP CURRENT INFORMATION CAN BE
FOUND IN THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NJZ013-014-020-022>027.
DE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GIGI
MARINE...DELISI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DELISI
RIP CURRENTS...DELISI
NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion