Storm Prediction Center Discussion
SPC MD 658
MD 0658 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 187...190... FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024
Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska
Concerning...Tornado Watch 187...190...
Valid 062227Z - 070000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 187, 190 continues.
SUMMARY...A line segment in southeast Nebraska will continue to move
into a destabilizing environment this evening with aid from
mid-level ascent. Severe winds and QLCS circulations/tornadoes will
be possible.
DISCUSSION...A more organized line of storms has developed in
south-central Nebraska. Though buoyancy has been limited by cloud
cover, regional surface observations show dewpoints reaching the low
60s F ahead of this line. This moisture advection should continue
this evening. Objective mesoanalysis shows 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in far
southeast Nebraska currently. This line of storms will be capable of
severe wind gusts and is expected to persist as continued mid-level
ascent pushes into central/eastern Nebraska this evening. QLCS
circulations/tornadoes are also possible. KUEX has showed occasional
low-level velocity couplets over the last hour. The northward extent
of the threat is a bit uncertain as destabilization becomes less
likely farther north.
..Wendt.. 05/06/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 41299830 41509822 41769689 41559632 41259616 40759593
40289604 40029683 39979781 39929827 41299830
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SPC MD 657
MD 0657 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0657
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024
Areas affected...Portions of South Carolina and Tennessee Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 062153Z - 062330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds are possible with modestly
organized, pulse-severe storms in parts of the Tennessee Valley into
South Carolina. Brief tornadoes are also possible for the next 1-2
hours in Middle/Eastern Tennessee with more discrete storms near the
MCV.
DISCUSSION...Large hail (with one 2 in. report) has occurred in
Middle Tennessee this afternoon. At least two TDS were also evident
on local radars. As this MCV continues east, strong to severe storms
are possible for the next 1-3 hours. Should cold pool organization
occur, some of this activity could reach parts of South Carolina
this evening.
Heating of a moist airmass along with some modest influence from an
MCV in the Tennessee Valley has promoted the development of widely
scattered storms across parts of South Carolina and nearby vicinity.
Deep layer shear is quite modest and outflow from storm has become
apparent on local radars. Some cold pool organization has occurred
in Upstate South Carolina which would locally enhanced the potential
for wind damage. Large hail has also been observed early in the
storm life cycle.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/06/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...
LAT...LON 33778284 34678414 35578643 35998634 36248576 36318474
36038365 35138141 35108099 34748007 34017990 33038053
32778105 32638176 32678228 33068247 33778284
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SPC MD 656
MD 0656 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024
Areas affected...South-central to northwest South Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188...
Valid 062051Z - 062245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail/wind continues across
portions of south-central to northwest South Dakota, especially in
the near-term (next 1-2 hours). This threat is expected to gradually
diminish heading into the evening hours.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and MRMS data over the past hour
continue to show a broken line of strong to severe cells along an
arching cold front from northwest to south-central SD. While many of
these cells have been relatively short-lived after they move off the
initiating boundary, new updraft development is noted within an
environment that remains favorable for organized convection (SBCAPE
between 1000-2000 J/kg with 35-40 knot effective bulk shear). The
expectation for the near-term is for ongoing cells and developing
storms to show periodic intensification to severe limits with an
associated risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. Latest
mesoanalysis suggests ample low-level vorticity continues to reside
along the front with sufficient low-level buoyancy for vertical
stretching (especially where temperatures have warmed into the upper
60s/low 70s) that may support a low-end tornado threat.
Beyond the next 2 hours, the surface low over western SD is expected
to gradually begin occluding with the cessation of northerly
transport of higher theta-e air, effectively isolating the effective
warm front. Early signs of this are already noted with the
development of a line of storms across south-central SD along a more
meridional section of the cold front. With the loss of buoyant
low-level moisture return, convective intensity should gradually
diminish.
..Moore.. 05/06/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 44770011 44229993 43649981 43219985 42969997 42840018
42760039 42890067 43480100 43960122 44350165 44630217
44880275 45100336 45060388 45040417 45270446 45610453
45780446 46040418 46210354 46260298 46260248 46100161
45890116 45430062 44770011
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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2024
...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over
parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and
tonight...
* LOCATIONS...
Much of Oklahoma
South-Central and Southeast Kansas
* HAZARDS...
Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
Widespread large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple intense
(EF3+), long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and
severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the
south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
..Mosier.. 05/06/2024
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